Most Chinese telecom providers will update existing PON with XG-PON and XGS-PON, a plan that could impact the pricing of NG-PON2 worldwide.
"We expect that China Telecom will continue to evaluate the use of 10 Gbit/s EPON, XG- and XGS-PON going forward, while China Mobile will focus on XG- and XGS-PON," said Alam Tamboli, senior analyst at the Dell'Oro Group, who recently spent time in China, visiting service providers and vendors.
Without widespread adoption by Chinese vendors of NG-PON2, it will be more challenging for other nations' service providers to realize anticipating volume savings of this technology, he said. The sheer size of the Chinese market can create -- or not create -- enough volume to generate volume savings, Tamboli noted.
"If the models that others have put out for NG-PON2 for price erosion are based around China adopting NG-PON2 then those price models have an inherent error in them," he said. "You won't have those volumes in NG-PON2 anytime soon. If volumes don't come up enough, pricing won't come down."
At 75% saturation of households, China still has room to grow (the United States, for example, has 80% saturation), said Tamboli. Chinese providers have reached most metropolitan areas and now must expand into rural and more challenging parts of the country, he said.
There are about 450 million households in China; the top three Chinese operators -- China Mobile (with more than 35 million new subscribers in 2017); China Unicom (with 1.3 million net adds last year), and China Telecom (which added 10.4 million new customers in 2017) -- represented about 339 million in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to Dell'Oro.
The Chinese government advocates the use of fiber -- in part because of the critical role fiber plays in 5G.
"It is clear that demand in China will not be the driver of broadband access revenue growth that it has been the past half dozen years. China subscriber numbers are coming closer and closer to market saturation every quarter," Tamboli said. China Mobile, which has seen the largest subscriber growth numbers anywhere... is expecting 2018 to be a much slower year with 'only' 21 million net additions for fixed broadband subscribers in the year."
To further cement his view, Tamboli pointed to Huawei's position that its carrier segment -- which includes multiple technologies such as PON, routers and mobile RAN -- will see only moderate growth in 2018.
Deploying DOCSIS 3.1 across its entire footprint gave Rogers Communications the ability to offer speeds of up to 1 Gbit/s,
contributing to a broadband segement that generated about 60% of the Canadian operator's $3.05 billion (US) in Q4 cable earnings.
On Jan. 23, Broadband World News hosts a Calix-sponsored webinar that explores several ways CSPs can enhance customer experience and find new business opportunities to avoid devolving into a speed race where nobody wins, not even the customer.
As the pool of savvy, fiber-rich operators across the US rural and regional landscape wanes, the financial community will grow even more interested in acquiring or investing in them, a CoBank report says.
It wasn't long ago that TV was ranked by subscribers as the most important service in the bundle provided by their communications service provider (CSP). Recent research indicates that for nearly three quarters of subscribers, broadband is now the most important service. Broadcast TV is the most important service to only 15% of North American consumers, replaced by OTT video streaming platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney+. In addition, many different competitors are moving aggressively to stake a claim in consumers' homes.
In 2020, CSPs need to fight back by transforming their business models, which are becoming more reliant on a single source of revenue: fixed broadband services.
This webinar will focus on helping CSPs transform their business models by placing a firm focus on delivering a sensational subscriber experience and by offering compelling new services that generate value for subscribers. These actions will reinforce the CSP's strategic position in the home network and position themselves for growth in the next decade.
Key topics include:
Being the first to market with WiFi 6 technology, in response to consumer purchases of new devices over the holidays;
Having the insights needed to proactively resolve issues, often before your subscribers even know that there are issues;
Providing help desk agents with the visibility they need to resolve common subscriber issues more quickly;
Delivering a mobile app, in response to consumer demands for the ability to do some things themselves, rather than having to call technical support; and
Addressing consumer concerns around device security, privacy and control with enhanced security and parental controls.
In this insightful Light Reading radio show, Kurt Raaflaub, Head of Strategic Solutions Marketing, will outline the key service provider challenges, deployment considerations, next-gen Gigabit technologies, and service models to win market share in the rapidly growing MDU market.