ADTRAN Warns of Tier 1 Slowdown, but Other Biz Grows 20% in Q3

Excluding Deutsche Telekom and Telmex, which took a purchasing hiatus in Q3, ADTRAN's business grew 20% over the prior quarter and generated an estimated $114 million, the company reported on Wednesday.

DT had cautioned ADTRAN earlier this year about spending cuts in the second half of 2019. Telmex encountered time delays generally associated with large infrastructure investments. Both operators remain ADTRAN customers, according to the vendor and public statements from DT and Telmex.

Earnings per share for the quarter, assuming dilution, will be about $0.96. Non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter, with dilution, should be a loss of approximately $0.06. ADTRAN expects a one-time, non-cash, valuation allowance of about $37 million, recorded to income tax expenses, it said in these preliminary earnings. In Q2, ADTRAN reported more than $177 million in cash and securities, net of debt.

ADTRAN shares lost nearly 20% of their value in one day. The stock closed down $2.10 (-19.25%) to $8.81 in normal trading on Thursday.

"Our revenue this quarter has been significantly impacted by a pause in shipments to a Tier 1 customer in Latin America and the continued slowdown in the spending at an international Tier 1 customer. Although we expect our Latin American customer sales to rebound, our current visibility regarding timing is limited," said ADTRAN CEO Tom Stanton, in a statement. "For the international Tier 1 customer, we expect that sales should resume with the new capital cycle in 2020."

The company predicts 4Q19 revenue will be flat or down slightly from the third quarter. ADTRAN plans an earnings call on Oct. 31.

Like its competitors, ADTRAN has been successfully wooing smaller operators, coops, municipalities and -- in ADTRAN's case -- MSOs. CenturyLink was a 10% customer last quarter and cablecos represent a healthy opportunity for the vendor, wrote Michael Genovese, managing director at MKM Partners, in an advisory, where he downgraded the stock from Fair to Neutral. "ADTRAN may potentially have three meaningful large cable MSO customers in 2020, which is a fairly new vertical for the company, Genovese wrote. "There are wireline access projects at the two largest US telcos that could be funded in 2020, including wireline products used for wireless backhaul at Verizon. DT spending is expected to come back in early 2020, and Telmex spending could come back at any time."

But, he cautioned, at least in the next year or two, fixed wireless access solutions could overtake demand for wireline fiber or copper broadband, and mmWave technologies may command the majority of operators' capex due to the 5G investment lovefest.

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— Alison Diana, Editor, Broadband World News. Follow us on Twitter or @alisoncdiana.

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