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batye
batye
7/1/2019 7:03:58 PM
User Rank
Gigamaster
Re: Optics -- is there a Moore's law?
@Ariella yes as many factors in play - some ould be accounted and addressed and some is unforseen...

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Ariella
Ariella
6/17/2019 11:02:20 AM
User Rank
Gigamaster
Re: Optics -- is there a Moore's law?
@DonBrown true, there are a number of variable that would need to be accounted for in any prediction, and it's impossible to know for sure how they will go.

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DonBrowne
DonBrowne
6/13/2019 10:23:59 AM
User Rank
Gigamaster
Re: Optics -- is there a Moore's law?
Without a working crystal ball, I would not venture to guess how accurate the prediction of tunable optics being too high priced will pan out in a few years. It will depend on supply and demand how just how popular might be a switch to NG-PON2 by industry leaders.

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Alison’s Wonderland
Alison’s Wonderland
6/11/2019 9:39:34 AM
User Rank
Author
Re: Optics -- is there a Moore's law?
Good point, and one to which I do not have an answer! I think some of it comes down to scale -- what does not make financial sense for a multi-billion-dollar vendor like a Nokia, an Apple, a Samsung (not in this space necessarily with the latter two companies, but in general) can make fiscal sense for a smaller, more specialized or niche vendor like an ADTRAN, a Calix, a Comtech -- again, not in this market but looking for vendors in the sub-$700M sales space, 2018). It's worthwhile for these smaller vendors to earn x% from a costlier tech, perhaps, and earn mindshare and a seat at the table with a tier one like Verizon -- plus space at other operators that are at least piloting NG-PON2.

If you search BBWN with "NG-PON2" you'll see we've covered quite a few pilots, from Altice to NBN. Although followup info is difficult to get -- and believe me, I've tried often! -- there is interest. It's just, as all agree, a question of that cost/volume ratio getting right.

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ngeary
ngeary
6/11/2019 4:13:17 AM
User Rank
Narrowbander
Optics -- is there a Moore's law?
Hi, great article.  I suppose the economics of the tech industry have inbuilt assumptions that ultimately stem from Moore's law on semiconductors.   I'm not aware that this can really apply to optics / optical components..... beyond simple "volume" driven -- wondering if anyone has studied this.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
6/6/2019 2:53:53 PM
User Rank
Gigamaster
Re: Chicken and egg
Verizon seems to like to choose the technologically superior but less popular options... I suppose we'll see how end users respond. If the differential in performance isn't very tangible....

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Duh!
Duh!
6/6/2019 2:45:19 PM
User Rank
Author
Chicken and egg
What I heard at FiberConnect reinforced the case that the future of NG-PON2 depends on whether there is enough critical mass of operators willing to buy in to push tunable ONTs down the cost curve.

At this point, VZ has NG-PON2 deployed in all of their announced 30 cities. Last I heard, CityFiber is going to start their NG-PON2 rollout in the next few months.  And that's it for actual deployments. Calix is the only equipment vendor that's producing revenue with NG-PON2.

With XGS-PON and 10GEPON riding the cost curve, the case for NG-PON2 rests on ancillary benefits of wavelength mobility  to planning, operations, SLAs etc. Despite the evangelism of The Broadband Forum and Verizon, the market does not yet understand those benefits.

 

-- Dan Grossman

 

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