Worldwide sales of next-generation PON technologies will add up to $7 billion by 2022, new Dell'Oro Group research finds.
The report, "Broadband Access 5-Year Forecast," incorporates technologies such as 10 Gbit/s EPON, XGS-PON and NG-PON2. By 2022, XGS-PON will account for $1.034 billion versus 2017 sales of $16 million, Alam Tamboli, senior analyst at Dell'Oro told Broadband World News. NG-PON2 will reach $204 million in 2022 compared with $5.9 million in 2017, he noted.
That works out to a compound annual growth rate of almost 40%, according to Dell'Oro.
"This is a part of the transition toward next-generation technologies as those technologies ramp up deployments," Tamboli said.
There is a long way to go before next-generation PON makes any noticeable dent in the installed 2.5 Gbit/s EPON base -- but operators want the capabilities of newer PON options and must upgrade aging infrastructure.
Slicing Up PON Pie
XGS-PON and 10 Gbit/s EPON, with some help from NG-PON2, slowly take share away from 2.5 Gbit/s EPON, according to Dell'Oro Group's "Broadband Access 5-Year Forecast."
"NG-PON2 adoption really comes down to is pricing low enough, and is XGS-PON good enough that thereís no need for the higher-capabilities of NG-PON2?" he said. "I think my NG-PON2 forecast has the most caveats attached to it. It could go anywhere from falling apart/zero revenue to being much bigger than XGS-PON, all depending on those two factors."
Indeed, XGS-PON's capabilities are well worth the higher price tag to some service providers -- most notably Verizon -- but including a growing number of operators around the globe, said Julie Kunstler, principal consultant for broadband access at Informa sister company Broadband Access 5-Year ForecastOvum earlier this month. (See NG-PON2: The Case for 5G Trumps Lackluster Equipment Volumes.)
Oceans don't separate next-generation PON adoption, which operators around the globe are planning and deploying. Chinese service providers are upgrading to XGS-PON and XG-PON, Ovum and Dell'Oro analysts agreed. But other providers are choosing from the entire array of PON options, Tamboli noted.
"Itís really a mixed bag. North America, Europe and even parts of Asia Pacific outside of China are all expected to drive strength in PON," he said.
— Alison Diana, Editor, Broadband World News. Follow us on Twitter or @alisoncdiana.