COVID-19 data surge is wake-up call for cable's weak upstream

Cable's residential networks largely survived a traffic surge triggered by millions of consumers working and schooling from home during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But those data peaks and the potential for persistent higher levels of demand in the months and years to come are causing cable operators to take another look at their upstream capacity requirements.

In fact, the demands placed on the upstream pipe could serve as a wake-up call and speed up plans to expand and augment the amount of capacity that is dedicated to upstream traffic on hybrid fiber/coax (HFC) networks.

The impact of the pandemic on cable's upstream "has changed the conversation," said Tom Cloonan, chief technology officer, broadband networks, at CommScope, noting that one of the company's MSO customers plans to deploy a year's worth or node splits in the next three months to ensure it stays well ahead of the curve. "Medium-term plans are becoming near-term plans."

According to data culled from some of CommScope's cable operator customers, the upstream usage in March, when stay-at-home orders became more prevalent, grew from 30% to an astounding 150% for an operator based in Europe during midday hours. During normal busy primetime hours, upstream demand climbed 20% to 50%.

But rather than peaking at night as in pre-COVID-19 times, the upstream peak now resembles a long, flat curve running from 7 a.m. till midnight, according to CommScope's data.

"The upstream was sorta going bonkers through the whole day like that," Cloonan said.

Although peak data rates on HFC networks have flattened out in recent weeks, there are concerns that the "new normal" won't revert back to the peak usage patterns prior to the pandemic. While cable operators have some tools that can relieve some pressure on the upstream in the near-term, they are also thinking about accelerating plans for upgrades that expand the spectrum dedicated to the upstream.

"There's been generally an awakening that we banged our heads on the ceiling here and we're closer to the ceiling than we realized," Cloonan said.

Possible upgrades could include a "mid-split" that raises the upstream to 85MHz (up from today's 42MHz on most North American DOCSIS networks) or a "high-split" that raises the ceiling to 204MHz. In tandem, cable operators could also beef up the spectrum available for the downstream by upgrading the network to 1.2GHz using today's DOCSIS 3.1 technologies, and then use that as a stepping stone toward an expansion to 1.8GHz and DOCSIS 4.0.

Cloonan said some cable operators will be increasingly active with upstream augmentation activities this year. He expects some trials to get underway this year and expand into 2020, noting that an 85MHz mid-split appears to be the current "sweet spot" for many operators.

For a deeper dive into some of the tools cable operators have on hand today to relieve some pressure on the HFC upstream, see this story in Light Reading: Cable upstream growth went 'bonkers' during early stages of pandemic – CommScope.

CommScope has posted some additional details on its findings, data usage trends and suggestions on how MSOs can get on top of it all using a range of near-term and longer-term solutions in this blog post.

Related posts:

• Rogers sees over 50% jump in network traffic from COVID-19
• US broadband usage starting to plateau – OpenVault
• Comcast: Network peak usage has plateaued in most markets
• Peak upstream and downstream demand climbs at Charter
• Cable's next big network move: Expanding the upstream
• CableLabs preparing to take DOCSIS 4.0 to the test

— Jeff Baumgartner, Senior Editor, Light Reading