SAN JOSE, Calif. -- The internet consists of thousands of public and private networks worldwide. And since it came to life in 1984, more than 4.7 zettabytes of IP traffic have flowed across it. That’s the same as all the movies ever made crossing global IP networks in less than a minute.
Yet Cisco's new Visual Networking Index (VNI) this is merely the start. By 2022, more IP traffic will cross global networks than in all prior ‘internet years’ combined through the end of 2016. Put another way, more traffic will be created in 2022 than in the 32 years since the internet began. Where will that traffic come from? All of us, our machines and the way we use the internet. By 2022, 60% of the global population will be internet users. More than 28 billion devices and connections will be online. And video will make up 82% of all IP traffic.
Key predictions for 2022
Cisco’s VNI looks at the impact users, devices and other trends will have on global IP networks over a five-year period. From 2017 to 2022, Cisco forecasts:
1. Global IP traffic will more than triple
- Global IP traffic is expected to reach 396 exabytes per month by 2022, up from 122 exabytes per month in 2017. That’s 4.8 zettabytes of traffic per year by 2022.
- By 2022, the busiest hour of internet traffic will be six times more active than the average. Busy-hour internet traffic will grow by nearly five times (37% CAGR) from 2017 to 2022, reaching 7.2 petabytes per second by 2022. In comparison, average internet traffic will grow by nearly four times (30% CAGR) over the same period to reach 1 petabyte by 2022.
2. Global internet users will make up 60% of the world’s population
- There will be 4.8 billion internet users by 2022. That’s up from 3.4 billion in 2017 or 45% of the world’s population.
3.Global networked devices and connections will reach 28.5 billion
- By 2022, there will be 28.5 billion fixed and mobile personal devices and connections, up from 18 billion in 2017—or 3.6 networked devices/connections per person, from 2.4 per person.
- More than half of all devices and connections will be machine-to-machine by 2022, up from 34% in 2017. That’s 14.6 billion connections from smart speakers, fixtures, devices and everything else, up from 6.1 billion.
4.Global broadband, WiFi and mobile speeds will double or more
- Average global fixed broadband speeds will nearly double from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps.
- Average global WiFi connection speeds will more than double from 24.4 Mbps to 54.0 Mbps.
- Average global mobile connection speeds will more than triple from 8.7 Mbps to 28.5 Mbps.
5. Video, gaming and multimedia will make up more than 85% of all traffic
- IP video traffic will quadruple by 2022. As a result, it will make up an even larger percentage of total IP traffic than before -- up to 82% from 75%.
- Gaming traffic is expected to grow nine-fold from 2017 to 2022. It will represent 4% of overall IP traffic in 2022.
- Virtual and augmented reality traffic will skyrocket as more consumers and businesses use the technologies. By 2022, VR and AR traffic will reach 4.02 exabytes/month, up from 0.33 exabytes/month in 2017.
Cisco VNI Methodology
The Cisco VNI™ Complete Forecast for 2017 to 2022 relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world network usage data. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco's own estimates for global IP traffic and service adoption. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report. Over its 13-year history, Cisco® VNI research has become a highly regarded measure of the internet's growth. National governments, network regulators, academic researchers, telecommunications companies, technology experts and industry/business press and analysts rely on the annual study to help plan for the digital future.
1 A petabyte is equal to 1,000 terabytes or one million gigabytes.
Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO)